The Galaxy Luminosity Functions in ASTRID: Predictions for LSST

We present validated and forward-modelled galaxy luminosity functions and photometric predictions for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time using the ASTRID cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The new analysis still awaits peer review, but it already lays out the central claim clearly.

The significance lies in cosmology operates at the edge of what current instruments can measure, where systematic errors and model assumptions are never trivial. Small discrepancies between independent measurements have historically pointed toward missing physics rather than simple calibration errors, and the ongoing tension in the Hubble constant is a live example of how a persistent disagreement between methods can reshape the theoretical landscape. Each new dataset that approaches this territory with independent systematics adds real information to a problem that has resisted easy resolution for more than a decade. ArXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community.

Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time using the ASTRID cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. Galaxy magnitudes are computed by combining stellar population synthesis modeling with a physically motivated dust attenuation prescription in which the optical depth scales with.

The dust model is calibrated at z = 0 using SDSS luminosity functions and tested at intermediate redshifts (z = 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5) in rest-frame B, V, R, and I bands. We find that the attenuated luminosity functions reproduce observed galaxy statistics across multiple wavelengths and redshifts.

Using this calibrated framework, we construct LSST-ready mock photometric catalogs over 0 <= z <= 2 in steps of Delta z = 0.1, containing ~378 million galaxies. We provide predicted apparent-magnitude luminosity functions in the LSST ugrizy bands, derive best-fit Schechter parameters as a compact analytic representation, and compute.

The relevance goes beyond one dataset because even small shifts in measured parameters can matter when the field is testing the limits of the standard cosmological model. The Lambda-CDM framework describes the observable universe with remarkable economy, but its success rests on two components, dark matter and dark energy, whose physical nature remains entirely unknown. Any credible measurement that tightens or loosens the constraints on those components moves the entire theoretical enterprise forward, regardless of whether the immediate result looks dramatic on its own terms.

Because this is still a preprint, the result should be read with genuine interest and proportionate caution. Peer review is not a guarantee of correctness, but it is a process that forces authors to respond to technical criticism from specialists who have no stake in a particular outcome. Preprints that survive that process, often with substantive revisions, emerge with a stronger evidential base than the version that first appeared. Until that stage is complete, the responsible reading keeps uncertainty explicitly visible rather than treating the claims as established findings.

The next step is to see whether the effect survives when independent surveys, different calibration strategies and tighter control of systematic uncertainties enter the picture. Programmes such as Euclid, DESI and the Rubin Observatory will deliver datasets over the next several years that cover the same parameter space with largely independent methods. If the current signal persists through those tests, its theoretical implications will become impossible to set aside. Until peer review and independent follow-up address those open questions, skepticism is not a failure of appreciation for the work; it is part of how science decides what to keep.

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