Shear-kSZ: A New Estimator for the Matter-Electron Power Spectrum from kSZ Tomography and Weak Lensing

We propose a new estimator for the ionized gas--matter power spectrum, which correlates the kinematic Sunyaev--Zel'dovich field with the line-of-sight velocity field and the weak-lensing convergence map. The new analysis still awaits peer review, but it already lays out the central claim clearly.

It is relevant because cosmology operates at the edge of what current instruments can measure, where systematic errors and model assumptions are never trivial. Small discrepancies between independent measurements have historically pointed toward missing physics rather than simple calibration errors, and the ongoing tension in the Hubble constant is a live example of how a persistent disagreement between methods can reshape the theoretical landscape. Each new dataset that approaches this territory with independent systematics adds real information to a problem that has resisted easy resolution for more than a decade. We propose a new estimator for the ionized gas--matter power spectrum, which correlates the kinematic Sunyaev--Zel'dovich (kSZ) field with the line-of-sight velocity field and the. Analogously to the standard stacked kSZ estimator, this estimator factorizes into a calibratable velocity kernel multiplying the matter--electron cross-power spectrum, $P_{me}(k)$.

Because the estimator accesses $P_{me}(k)$ for the full matter distribution rather than around a specific biased tracer as is the case with the standard stacked kSZ estimator, it. We derive and validate an analytical expression for the estimator against simulations, finding percent-level agreement.

Due to its parity structure, contributions from cosmic microwave background (CMB) foregrounds cancel. Because the signal-to-noise is dominated by CMB noise rather than lensing depth, we expect a detection already at $\sim10σ$ with early LSST data releases.

Substantial (factor of 2) gains in signal-to-noise are expected with Advanced Simons Observatory. While here we focus on DESI-like LRGs as the foreground sample, lower-redshift samples provide an even wider array of source samples in the background.

The relevance goes beyond one dataset because even small shifts in measured parameters can matter when the field is testing the limits of the standard cosmological model. The Lambda-CDM framework describes the observable universe with remarkable economy, but its success rests on two components, dark matter and dark energy, whose physical nature remains entirely unknown. Any credible measurement that tightens or loosens the constraints on those components moves the entire theoretical enterprise forward, regardless of whether the immediate result looks dramatic on its own terms.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. ArXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Because this is still a preprint, the result should be read with genuine interest and proportionate caution. Peer review is not a guarantee of correctness, but it is a process that forces authors to respond to technical criticism from specialists who have no stake in a particular outcome. Preprints that survive that process, often with substantive revisions, emerge with a stronger evidential base than the version that first appeared. Until that stage is complete, the responsible reading keeps uncertainty explicitly visible rather than treating the claims as established findings.

The next step is to see whether the effect survives when independent surveys, different calibration strategies and tighter control of systematic uncertainties enter the picture. Programmes such as Euclid, DESI and the Rubin Observatory will deliver datasets over the next several years that cover the same parameter space with largely independent methods. If the current signal persists through those tests, its theoretical implications will become impossible to set aside. Until peer review and independent follow-up address those open questions, skepticism is not a failure of appreciation for the work; it is part of how science decides what to keep.

Source