New solar model maps sun more accurately by checking far-side activity

A Southwest Research Institute-led team has developed an improved model for predicting solar events that incorporates activity on the far side of the sun. The science-journalism coverage adds useful context, while the strongest evidential footing still comes from the underlying data, papers or institutional documentation.

That matters because Earth science becomes stronger when local observations can be placed inside a broader physical pattern that spans time and geography. The planet operates as a coupled system in which atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and solid-Earth processes interact across timescales from days to millions of years. A measurement that captures one variable at one location and one moment has limited interpretive value until it is embedded in the longer series and wider spatial coverage that allow natural variability to be separated from forced change. This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. The team studied near-simultaneous maps of the whole solar surface from 2010 to 2014, combining Earth observations with data from space-based assets showing the opposite side.

Scientists use SFT models to monitor and forecast the activity of the sun, which in turn helps them to predict space weather that can impact the Earth. The study "A Probabilistic Framework for Incorporating Helioseismic Far-Side Active Regions into SFT Models" was published this month in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement.

Bibhuti Jha, a research scientist in SwRI's Solar System Science and Exploration Division located in Boulder, Colorado. If we can plot out the next solar cycle, we will have a better idea of how the sun is going to behave in coming years.

Unlike the moon, which has one side permanently facing the Earth, the sun rotates entirely on its axis around every 27 days. This means every part of the sun eventually rotates into view from Earth.

The broader interest lies in linking the observation to climatic, geophysical or environmental dynamics that extend well beyond the immediate event or location. Earth science is unusual in that its most important questions operate on timescales that no single research career can observe directly, making the archival record, whether in ice, sediment, rock or satellite data, as important as any new measurement. Results that can be embedded in that record, and that either confirm or challenge the patterns it reveals, carry disproportionate scientific weight.

In the 1970s, scientists began using acoustic waves to understand internal and far-side solar activity in the same way that geologists use acoustic waves to study what is. The new model developed by the SwRI team helps weed out these ghost active regions, providing a more accurate map of the entire surface of the sun at any given time.

Because this item comes through Phys. org Space as science journalism, it should be treated as contextual reporting rather than primary evidence. Good science reporting can identify why a result matters, connect it to the wider literature and make technical work readable, but the decisive evidence remains in the original paper, dataset, mission release or technical record. That distinction is especially important when a story is later repeated by aggregators, because repetition increases visibility, not evidential strength.

The next step is to place the result inside longer time series and to compare it with independent instruments and independent sites. Earth system observations gain most of their interpretive power from network density and temporal depth, not from any single measurement however precise. Model simulations that assimilate the new data will help clarify whether the observation fits comfortably within known natural variability or represents a shift that existing models do not reproduce.

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