Identifying Kilonovae in the Presence of Optical Afterglow for the Wide-Field Survey Telescope

Identifying kilonovae associated with binary neutron star mergers is often complicated by the presence of a dominant synchrotron afterglow. The new analysis still awaits peer review, but it already lays out the central claim clearly.

It is relevant because astrophysics becomes persuasive only when an observed signal can be tied to a physically defensible explanation. Compact objects such as neutron stars and black holes are natural laboratories for extreme physics, but the distance and complexity of these systems make interpretation difficult without multi-wavelength coverage and careful modeling. A detection without a mechanism is only half a result. the other half comes from showing that the signal fits quantitatively inside a coherent physical picture rather than merely being consistent with a broad family of models. In this work, we evaluate the performance of the Wide-Field Survey Telescope (WFST) in identifying kilonova signals in composite afterglow-kilonova transients. Using a numerical framework based on the Fisher information matrix, we simulate $10, 000$ realizations for each of two scenarios: an AT2017gfo-based template model and a physically.

Our results indicate that kilonova identification is primarily limited by source distance. In both scenarios, the identification efficiency is largely insensitive to variations in afterglow microphysical parameters and exceeds $80\%$ at distances within approximately.

Under our adopted assumptions, we estimate that WFST could identify approximately $1$--$16$ kilonovae per year. Furthermore, we find that the discriminating power of color-based filters rapidly saturates, reaching a stable plateau by the second night after the merger.

We therefore propose a staged observing strategy that prioritizes high-cadence $g$ and $r$-band monitoring during the first night and incorporates the $z$ band from the second. This strategy improves the identification precision by exploiting the increasingly prominent red excess produced by the kilonova.

The broader interest lies in turning an observational clue into something that can be weighed against competing models of the underlying physics. Astrophysics does not have the luxury of controlled experiments; everything is inferred from radiation that traveled across cosmic distances under conditions that cannot be reproduced in a terrestrial laboratory. This makes the interpretation chain longer and more uncertain than in bench science, but it also means that a well-constrained measurement of an extreme object carries theoretical information that no earthbound experiment can provide.

Our results provide a physical basis for optimizing WFST observing resources to efficiently detect and characterize kilonovae in the multimessenger era. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy.

Because this is still a preprint, the result should be read with genuine interest and proportionate caution. Peer review is not a guarantee of correctness, but it is a process that forces authors to respond to technical criticism from specialists who have no stake in a particular outcome. Preprints that survive that process, often with substantive revisions, emerge with a stronger evidential base than the version that first appeared. Until that stage is complete, the responsible reading keeps uncertainty explicitly visible rather than treating the claims as established findings.

The next step is to see whether independent datasets and physical modeling converge on the same interpretation. Multi-wavelength follow-up, combining X-ray, radio and optical data where possible, is typically what separates a compelling detection from a robust physical characterization. In high-energy astrophysics, results that initially looked definitive have been revised when data from a second messenger arrived; the current result should be read with that history in mind. Until peer review and independent follow-up address those open questions, skepticism is not a failure of appreciation for the work; it is part of how science decides what to keep.

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